EBP2 - Democratisation in China??

The article Why China Will Democratize by Yu Liu and Dingding Chen explains why they think China will democratize in the “near future” – whatever that means (I guess if they don’t specify a date then they can’t be wrong!!!). Some people have guesses 2015 (nice try guys) and 2025 (I’m not optimistic) but I guess the Hong Kong protests last year would have made the issue more urgent.

Economic development

·      They refute the usual performance legitimacy hypothesis because

1.     Other states that have been economically successful, like China, have still democratized eg Brazil, Korea (South, obviously), Taiwan (but this is really a separate issue for China), Chile, Greece, Spain etc etc, notably during the Third Wave of Democratisation.

2.     What people want vs what the CCP can actually do. The government cannot do more without more money, but where does the money come from? The people. A dilemma alright. The three options of inflation, reducing waste and raising taxes all have negative effects on the people, so would not really help the situation.

3.     Economic growth may not be continuous – we have already seen China’s growth rate slow marginally and this can threaten the stability of the regime.

·Inequality and Pressure for Democratization

1.     China is hugely unequal.

2.     This causes resentment.

3.     The middle class is become “neutralized” aka no longer pro-CCP.

The political culture in China is changing.

·      -Younger people are more pro-democratic

·      -Domestic issues are a huge problem – internal security spending is almost equal to military spending (!!!!!!) – this is huge when you consider China’s military modernization.

·      -Celebrities are promoting democracy

·      -The media is even posting about the joys of democracy

·      -And of course, the internet (think the power of the 500 million people who can access the internet = 125 New Zealands)

The change

·      -Wen Jiabao gave off hints, but this could just be to placate the people

·      -This discourse can help hold the government accountable

·      -Some party officials are elected

·      -Leaders have less power than they used to e.g Xi Jinping

·      -Foreign leaders perceive China negatively because of the regime, and China wants to remedy this

·      -The change will not be easy

Whether China will democratise is almost impossible to tell. What Liu and Chen say is that the people aren’t necessarily pro- CCP, but they are not anti-CCP either. The protests last year in Hong Kong proved how little the CCP was willing to give, yet the people are becoming educated and realising the benefits of democracy. The economic growth figures are phenomenal, but most of the people won’t be seeing this money, either due to corruption or living in rural areas, and this may create hostility. If something were to trigger a movement, say, lack of growth or taking back the ounce of democracy we see in local elections, then perhaps we would see some steps forward.

The rise of China will also matter hugely. Will the economy continue to flourish? Does China want to be seen as hostile in the South China Sea? Does it want to be a hegemon in Asia? Will it take back Taiwan? Will it continue to build its naval power? How will China maintain its relationship with the US? Does it want to? If the Chinese people saw China as being too aggressive, they may try to hold the government accountable. 

To me, democracy seems a long way off in China. The government has a pretty tight lock around the people, and most people are not ready to step out and say, “I want democracy”. It looks like a long transition that hasn’t really begun. In order to democratise, something will have to happen to set off a response among the people. From there, the government may relinquish control an inch at a time.

(io9.com)

This photo, although not entirely relevant is of a 'nailhouse' in China - people refuse to let their houses be knocked down and end up in the middle of big developments. Just google nailhouses and there are some pretty astonishing results. Some people are willing to oppose the government. 

Also, for those of you have seen UP, - disney is more relevant than we knew!!!