Russia’s growing middle class – the key to true democracy?

It has often been suggested that the middle class can play a large role in the democratisation of a country. They stand to gain a large amount, expanding their wealth, from potential democratisation and they possess large amounts of capital – legitimising the threat of revolution. European countries that transitioned from monarchies to democracies in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries, such as France, are often highlighted as examples of how the middle class performs this role.

Today, to the east of where these revolutions took place, sits Russia. While it is one of the world’s fastest growing economies, it remains wrapped under the ‘soft’ authoritarian grasp of Vladmir Putin. However as the economy grows so does Russia’s middle class – the average Russian household income is expected to change dramatically over the coming years:

Russian Households by Income Bracket

Source: CEEMEA Business Group

The obvious question this begs is will the growing middle class help democratise Russia? Selectorate theory seems to suggest two outcomes – firstly that the growing wealth and capital of the middle class will force it into the selectorate – its economic power will eventually become too immense for Putin to not allow it to have a say in policy matters. Providing private goods to such a large group in order to maintain power will be too costly, so public goods, such as democracy, must instead be offered. Alternatively, Putin’s regime could be well aware of this rising group and seek to repress the middle class in other ways, somehow preventing them from becoming part of the selectorate.

While the actual outcome of Putin’s regime is unclear, I think it can be said with greater certainty that the regime will not remain as it currently is for very long. Whether moving towards a more repressive government, or stepping towards democracy, a change in the near future of governance in Russia seems certain.