EBP 2: The Arab Spring: Why The Surprising Similarities With The Revolutionary Wave Of 1848?

Like the title indicates, Kurt Weyland discusses in an article written in 2012 about the similarities between the Arab Spring that started in 2010, and the Revolutionary Wave of 1948. He notes the relationship between psychology and political science when speaking of what empowered people to create demonstrations and protests that revolted against the oppressive states during each of these eras. Along with a psychological critique of why the Revolutionary Wave and the Arab Spring began, Weyland applies political science and foreign policy analysis methods and theories, when studying why and what happened to the states that were involved in the revolutions.

For the context of the points I plan to make, it is best to have a good understanding of the events that Weyland draws similarities too. The Revolutionary Wave of 1848 first started in Sicily, then spread through to France, Germany, Italy, and the Austrian Empire. They were obviously waves of revolts against the European Monarchies, that like the Arab Spring, called for a change in regime. To escape the repressive rule of the Monarchs. Like the Revolutionary Wave, the Arab Spring was a series of protests that were pro-democracy and called for the end of authoritarian regimes throughout the Middle East and North Africa. One can already see the comparisons drawn up between the two, but another similarity between the two is that most of these revolutions ended up not succeeding and instead resulted in a far more repressive government.

The first parallel and the most obvious one is that of which the ideology of the movements travelled. The Arab Spring reached new audiences through its conception in Tunisia in 2010. This was due to the fact that in this day and age, people have access to the media 24/7, which means news can be distributed and seen easily. Due to the fact that many could see the collapse of Tunisia's autocratic system, the rest of the Arab people throughout the Middle East felt inspired by their own disenfranchisement to collapse their repressive regimes. Although the Revolutionary Wave of 1848 had travelled fast by mouth along the railway lines, as many events took longer to report on, and there were far less and slower forms of media to which it could be passed on through. However, it is hard to deny that both did, in fact, inspire those who felt mistreated to revolt. There is a difference when it came about actually protested these repressive forms of state government. The Arab Spring, although easily and readily had access to information, protested in a more fragmented way compared to the Revolutionary Wave of 1848. The immediate access to information in this day and age is what can easily create catalysts at the drop of a hat, it is what sparked the rest of the Arab world to rise against with civil unrest. Seeing Tunisia achieve what they wished to do sparked hope that they could overthrow their government also due to the similar circumstances. This was much like other states that saw Sicily as an empowered example as to why they should revolt. Seeing as they also sat in a similar state of disenfranchisement, they wished to change their own state. The similarity of civilian unrest between the two different waves of revolution highlights how common it is, and is probably why it is one of the key points to consider in provoking a revolution within a repressive state.

Weyland draws on another parallel when discussing on how the Arab Spring and the Revolutionary Wave in Europe failed. Many wished for a more democratic government, however, this needed to be done with a new leader, one that all of them could support. As a collective, they were poorly organised as not all could agree on the same leader due to different views, or whether it be due ethnic/ religious divisions in certain states.  The poor organisation of these groups in each country during the Arab Spring and the Revolutionary Wave is a contributing factor as to why most of them failed. They believed that simply having the idea to bring down a regime was enough to create a democratic one out of the ashes. However, democracy cannot be created within a day, most of these failed revolutions were seen as too short-sighted as most saw taking down the current regime had been enough rather that also installing a democracy as well. Weyland makes it clear that he identifies these reasons are why there was such a huge failure in transitioning from one government to another. This gave the already existing regimes the upper hand, as they were able to locate and source groups that created problems for the government and were able to furthermore repress them to eventually rid themselves of the uprisings.

Lastly, although a majority of the revolutions resulted in failure, there were those succeeded in creating a new regime, there was usually a remanent of conflict of power from the old regime at hand in both the Arab Spring, and the Revolutionary Wave of Europe. An example taken from France is the end of the Second Republic after the Revolt in 1848, due to Louis Napoleon taking the title of Emperor Napoleon III and dissolving the National Assembly, thus beginning the Second Empire. Similarities can be drawn upon from Egypt also, as even though they remain a democracy since the revolution during the Arab Spring, they still face groups such as the military or Islam extremists etc. that oppose the new form of government. This can relate back to the discussion in class of which factionalism within a regime can cause instability within the state. That due to the different ideas and values that each of the groups carried, they can never be content with the idea of democracy.

I praise Weyland for his use of "cognitive shortcuts," which is his idea of people's psychology within these international movements. It creates a more practical approach towards these uprisings as to why people wanted, and how a change in government could benefit them. It implants the ideas of these non-state actors into the reader's mind, so that they too can envision the reasons to topple the repressive governments. I believe his article supplies them with true insight into the analysis where one can find themselves relating.

Sources
Goldburg, Maren, and Gloria Lotha. 2011. "Second Repbulic | French History". Encyclopedia Britannica. https://www.britannica.com/topic/Second-Republic-French-history.

Lotha, Glora. 2017. "Revolutions of 1848 | Causes, Summary, & Significance." Encyclopedia Britannica. https://www.britannica.com/event/ Revolutions-of-1848

Tech, Noah, and Gloria Lotha. 2015. "Arab Spring | Pro-Democracy Protests." Encyclopedia Britannica. https://www.britannica.com/event/Arab-Spring

Weyland, Kurt. 2012. "The Arab Spring: Why The Surprising Similarities With The Revolutionary Wave Of 1848?" Perspectives On Politics 10 (04): 917-934. doi: 10.1017/s1537592712002873