EBP 2: The Arab Uprisings Explained

The introduction of The Arab Uprisings Explained, written by Marc Lynch summarises the Arab Uprisings; how they came about and why some uprisings were more successful, while others were violent and pointless.
The uprisings began with Mohammad Bouazizi's self immolation and then swept across the Middle East, where almost all Arab states were demanding political change. Although it started suddenly, these uprisings did not come out of nowhere, due to popular discontent being well known across many Arab states- especially in Egypt, where there was open criticism of their leader.
The regimes that were being protested against responded in very different ways and this had a dramatic effect on the outcomes of these revolutions. In some states, e.g. Egypt, the protests escalated and grew but in others, such as Saudi Arabia, the protests quickly settled down and relaxed. This was due to many different factors, which Marc Lynch summarises in his chapter.
A major factor was due to the response of the regimes. Some states responded to the protests with violence, which fuelled these uprisings and ultimately created a Civil War (Syria). This was also escalated by the regimes loyalty to the political leader, Bashar al-Assad, where they refused to have him ousted. Others, such as Egypt and Tunisia sacrificed their political leader, where the leader left the military to create a new regime, which was usually accepted only by election. Although this did not automatically reduce tension in the Arab Uprisings due to this not being enough for many protesters, who were protesting a much bigger problem than simply the political leader.
The international positions towards the uprisings also had an affect on how different Arab revolutions would end. The US, for example, had a muddled foreign policy position towards the Middle East, where they were ill-prepared and tended to make many issues worse. The chapter looks at why the international community became involved and sanctioned some Arab states but remained out of others and how they use their power to aid their own foreign policy goals. An example of this was given of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates preempting Bahraini reform and supporting Egypt's coup.
Additionally, it is looked at how the balance of power among social forces effects the outcome in traditional cases. It is stated that the ideological preference that the regime favours tends to be a key factor in the success of a revolution. Public support is also considered a key factor, where people's support for the status quo tends to give autocrats an upper hand. Two more key factors are the constitution/judiciary and the economy of the state. The constitution and judiciary can help to ensure that there are clear rules, which can remove uncertainty and therefore help to stabilise a state - therefore states that have had a collapse in their judicial system are more likely to fail to revolt. The economy on the other hand has a more practical affect on the uprisings. Most regimes dealing with an uprising cannot effectively deal with debt and a crippling economy, especially when they are required to use military force in order to stabilise their regime. This factor links back to the idea that international support effected the outcomes due to the fact that international actors were able to fund and support governments who are struggling with debt, or conversely fund rebel groups looking to overthrow their government. This gives them the opportunity to manipulate the situations in the Middle East and therefore only support the group/regime if it coincides with their foreign policy.