About
Kurt Weyland’s 2012
article “The Arab Spring: Why the Surprising Similarities with the
Revolutionary Wave of 1848?” compares the Arab Spring and the Revolutionary
Wave and looks at the mechanisms that account for these similarities1.
Context
To aid in understanding
this historical study and journalistic comparison, I will first provide background
knowledge on the Revolutionary Wave, then on the Arab Spring.
The 1848 revolutions
were a series of uprisings throughout Europe with the aim of removing the monarchies
from power and creating independent nation-states. This contention was born out
of the general dissatisfaction with the current political hierarchy, causing citizens
to demand more political participation. Many of these revolutions were suppressed,
often resulting in mass deaths and exiles2.
The Arab Spring was a
series of uprising throughout North Africa and the Middle East which began in
2010 and lasted until 20133. These uprisings were in response to oppressive
authoritarian regimes and the low-quality life conditions they provided. Many
of these uprisings were successful and saw governments overthrown, but some
were not so fortunate and led to civil wars.
This links to the
recent topics within our course of regime change, specifically through culture
and targeting development. Citizens under these regimes started a revolution through
their culture and cultures of neighbouring regions who were all experiencing
the same repression and desire for development.
Main Points
First Weyland investigates
the similarities between the Arab Spring and the Revolutionary Wave. These are
the two main comparisons:
-
In both situations, waves
of disagreement with the ruling system swept across regions. This wide-spread dissatisfaction
was the beginning to both revolutions.
-
This disagreement
spread more dramatically as people in a wide range of countries were drawing
rash inferences. Citizens overrated the significance they carried and
overestimated the similarities between regions. This means they assumed if one country’s
uprising was successful, theirs will be too. This was not always the case however,
as citizens were often weakly organised and/or repressed.
In short, both situations
saw citizens that were “easily susceptible to the simple inferences”4
and often acted on rash decisions, resulting in weakly organised revolutions.
Second, he
investigated the mechanisms that account for these similarities. The three main
explanations were:
-
Intense clusters of similar
political events occurring in neighbouring regions within short periods of
time.
-
These regions were
also enduring a time of economic crises.
-
Most importantly,
according to Weyland, these regions wanted to recreate the successful demonstrations
they saw in external revolutions but also the revolutions going on within their
neighbouring countries.
In short, neighbouring
regions were experiencing similar situations under their sovereigns and sought
to recreate successful attempts at creating change.
Evaluation
I believe
the main point of demonstration was the key factor in Arab Spring and helps to
explain the revolutions in 1848. However, I cannot agree with the emphasis put on
it in terms of comparison. While it can aid in explaining both contentions, it
is significantly more salient in Arab Spring. This is simply due to technology
and how easy it is to know what is going on in the world in real time. In 1848,
word-of-mouth was all there was to spread news, and that was very far off real
time. So, while copying demonstrations could understandably help in the Revolutionary
Wave, I don’t believe it can be compared to Arab Spring as intensely as Weyland
does.
Additional Resources
For further reading,
and to gain a better perspective on this article, I would suggest reading “The
Arab Spring” by Margaret Haerens and Lynn M. Zott5. This book is a
collection of viewpoints on the Arab Spring, providing detailed evidence and
explanation to help you decide your own opinion. It is then that you can read
Weyland’s article and understand (or disagree with) my evaluation with more confidence.
Endnotes
1 Weyland, Kurt. (2012). The Arab Spring: Why the Surprising Similarities
with the Revolutionary Wave of 1848?. Perspectives
on Politics 10(4), pp. 917-934.
2 Evans, Robert., Pogge von Strandmann, Hartmut. (2002). The Revolutions
in Europe, 1848-1849: From
Reform to Reaction (1). Oxford, United Kingdom: Oxford University Press.
3 Maleki, Ammar. (2011). Uprisings in the Region and Ignored Indicators. http://www.payvand.com/news/11/feb/1080.html.
Accessed 30 Sept 2019.
4 Weyland (n1).
5 Haerens, Margaret., Zott, Lynn M. (Eds.). (2013). The Arab Spring (1).
Detroit, MI: Greenhaven Press.
Thanks for this summary and discussion, Renee! The 1848 wave was also pretty quick, despite the fact that it had only word of mouth to rely on. What does social media add in the Arab spring? Just more speed? Or is there something else?
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