I was wondering what everyone thinks about Putin and the Russian system: what kind of regime is it? Is there any indication that Putin could be ousted in a coup? Regardless of how he goes (death, coup, losing an election and stepping aside), he's dominated Russian politics for 15 years. What happens when he does go?
What do you think, Cameron?
ReplyDeleteI don't know - seems to me it could go in heaps of different directions depending on the timing and the players involved.
ReplyDeleteDidn't think that a coup was ever possible because Putin projects such a strong image and he has been good at suppressing opposition in the past. He's politically crafty - the switch to PM and back again - and his past in the KGB must give him some gravitas/authority/fear. But maybe his worst enemy isn't his political opposition but members of his inner circle who are displeased with the direction he's taking Russia in. Maybe they don't like how hawkish he has been and want to be more moderate? Maybe they're not impressed with the collapse of the Ruble and Russia's economic downturn? I don't know.
In terms of what happens when he's gone I think it depends on how he goes. But in any case, his domination of Russia will leave something of a vacuum. Instability could result when he goes, but on the other hand a savvy person can also grab power and continue the strong hold just with a different face. It will be interesting if he 'anoints' a successor.
Do you think that Russia is an authoritarian regime? Seems to be some amount of democratic political competition but he also seems to flout democratic processes.
Cameron, yes, I would think Russia is an authoritarian regime. The question concerns more the "degree" of authoritarianism - which groups are genuinely excluded? How much are elections a sort of formality? Etc.
DeleteI think even though Russia holds "elections", I can't see Putin being ousted in a coup. It seems like he holds almost absolute power. I agree with Cameron that he is very politically crafty, switching between PM and back again.
ReplyDeleteI personally don't see Putin relinquishing power any time soon, and will more than likely find a way to hold a position of power until he dies.
DeleteFrom what I've read about Putins rule since first becoming elected in 2000 is that there has been mixed support for him, with a majority of Russians supporting him. Especially since the annexation of Crimea his support has grown. Whether you believe that he is the sole authoritarian leader in Russian currently or the figure head of the ruling elites, you can’t deny that much of the support lies with him being at the top. I would think that if there was a feeling of wanting to oust him, they would have been easier to do so when he was Prime Minister from 2008 till 2012, when he became President again, and now able to sit another term after his current one, it would make it harder to oust him from his position by those who may share in some of his power. With his tactics, support and corruption it’s hard to see him losing the next election, meaning he will continue to dominate Russian politics for anther Presidential term. So in terms of what will Russia do when he leaves, they will need to fill the power vacuum created once he is no longer the head and quickly to attempt to bypass a potential for a period of unrest.
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