Changing Goverments

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Acquiring the Habit of Changing Governments through Elections

Adam Przeworski

This article discusses the process of changing governments. By looking at over 3,000 elections it is able to provide the necessary statistical analysis to back up the argument throughout the essay. Przeworski begins by stating partisan governments have made it seem a natural progression to allow parties to have elections. Someone is named a winner of the election; who will then become Prime Minister/President. These elections happen regularly with little to no opposition. Though, as Przeworski declares, although the first partisan election happened over 200 ago years it was still very rare to have a peaceful transfer of power between two groups, until very recently. This transfer of power though is different, if for example, there has not been a past election before. Then the incumbent does not know what will happen when they leave office. This can be seen in 1989 in Chile, where the Chilean military tried to protect itself thoroughly when leaving office, though most still ended up in prison. The risk for losing power is, what will the winners do when the incumbents leave office? Will circumstances be similar to Chile in 1989?

If one was to take the argument that individuals learn from experience, then as transfers of power happen in governments, more and more successful elections should be seen, with less force. History shows that periods with no switch in government are more likely to result in violence. But once switches do begin to appear, the electoral mechanism becomes engrained in the state and more frequent.  On average, it takes 9.0 elections for the first alternation to occur but it takes only 3.4 elections for the second and only 2.3 for the third. Przeworski states that further analysis is needed to understand the conditions in which incumbents are willing to lose elections and the events which add up to a partisan alternation in office.

Przeworski then presents statistical analysis which shows that of the 2,886 elections between 1788 and 2008, 81 percent of them were won by the incumbent (including those where there was no opposition). However, 70% of that 81% were won in a contested election, where there was more than one candidate for election. Importantly though, only 21% of incumbents lost and left in a peaceful manner. Przeworski discusses the concept of alternations and transitions. Alternations occur when the incumbent enters an election (however he was first in office) or when the chief executive changes due to an election (a change of the party in power).

The argument in Przeworski’s article contains a lot of complex mathematics analysis. It is discussed how each incumbent has one of two possibility’s, either the incumbent he can hold elections which cannot be lost where the incumbent would need to be forced out or alternatively, the incumbent lets the voters make the decision. A mathematical equation is developed for the conditions around competitive elections. This model shows that as the variable theta increases (lower probability of violence to the incumbent ruler if he loses) then the probability of elections increases, even if he would not win. In Przeworskis’ words “it is not whether the incumbent would lose but what he would lose that matters. The assumption then is that an electoral defeat reduces the incumbent’s capacity to impose himself by force.

Przeworski then goes on to discuss the first alternations around the globe. Stating that 19 countries experienced one or more alternations before the 1900s, New Zealand being one of these countries. The general trend for the first alternation is the change of government is met with resistance, as there is no history of peaceful transition. The group in power do not want to give up for fear of what might happen to them. For example Przeworski talks about how in Great Britain the king appointed a Tory PM in spite of the Tory defeat in 1834. The author then statistically models factors that determine the first alternation or change in government to ascertain factors that can be used to predicate the outcome. He concludes that, first alternations are difficult to predicate because they contain many random factors and accidents of history.

It is clear that once an alternation has happened peacefully the next incumbent is likely to be more accepting of a peaceful yield of office, and alternations become routine soon after as more occur. 

Przeworski, says that holding elections of any kind helps to protect coups or civil wars. Having peaceful alternations protects the country from constitutional breakdown as the opposition can channel its resistance into the next electoral cycle. Elections wins can protect rulers as they show the ruler has support from the population.

The main conclusions of the article is that elections are a method of reducing conflict. This is said to happen by having elections, as opposing forces can use their energy to contest the election rather than using physical violence. Relinquishing power the first time in an election is difficult as the incumbent may fear retribution for his or her past misdeeds. As each successful alternation occurs there is more chance of another occurring without physical violence. 

Context

This article is trying discover factors that can be used to model or predict whether the transition or alternations from one ruling party in a country to another will be peaceful or not. The article is an academic study of these factors. It focuses on many countries so that it is hard to provide a concise context on any one country in the article. Przworski is an important political science scholar, who focuses on democracy. He is one of the theorists for the theory of democracy and political economy.

Though the article has much mathematical analysis, which is somewhat difficult to follow at times, Przeworski produces an article that solidly backs up his equations. By using over 3,000 different elections to discuss the equations, the reader is able to understand the article a lot easier. The mathematical equation seems to try very hard to prove what Przeworski has argued but do not appear to provide conclusive proof.

Przeworski, Adam. 2015. Acquiring the Habit of Changing Governments Through Elections. Comparative Political Studies 48 (1): 101-129 http://cps.sagepub.com/content/48/1/101.abstract