After Egypt -Marc Lynch

Explanatory Blog Post 2: 

This article examines the use and effectiveness of increasingly accessible and inclusive information environment throughout authoritarian Arab states with the addition of the internet, social media networking and satellite television. After outlining the initial impact of these additions Lynch goes on to explain how this has helped instigate and impacted social uprising against oppressive states, how these same tools have been used to “strengthen surveillance and repression capabilities of authoritarian states” (-Lynch), and how this has impacted or should impact an academic rethinking of literature on the authoritarian Arab political environment, with the majority of reference to the uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt.

One of Lynches main arguments is that the new forms of media readily available across the Arab world have reshaped political opportunity and given voices, and a sense of group unification to those previous too afraid to speak – but this has only had an ambiguous effect on altering authoritarian state power. Lynch initially draws on the lack of regime change, domestic policy revision and new, powerful and long lasting political coalition empowerment after the introduction of satellite television and Al-Jazeera in the 1990’s. He then builds on this in light of the growth of internet and smartphone technology during the 2000’s with specific reference to the importance of internet in the 2009 Iranian “Green Revolution”, how Facebook assisted in catching Egyptian authorities off guard in 2006, and Facebook’s importance in Tunisia in December 2010 and Egypt in the following months. In both cases the autocrats being protested against stepped down. By itself this would illustrate a significant measure of success but in both cases they were replaced by the military establishment that had supported and assisted their rule – so perhaps a only a limited measure of success.

The article then moves on to depict four ways in which the new media has been challenging the power of Arab states in the section titled “Four Pathways to Change”. The first pathway entitled “Contentious Collective Action” outlines five categories in which the new media can effect collective action and the trade-offs between mobilization and organisation. The first category, titled “transaction costs” explains how media can facilitate protests in such ways as making the cost of contact and therefore the organisation of collective action cheaper and increasing the visibility of protests which can help combat the atomization seen in authoritarian regimes. The second category – “Informational Cascades” – outlines a knock-on effect that can happen when one person speaking out against the regime is publicly recognized for it can encourage others of the same opinion to do likewise. This was operational in Tunisia but does not fit the Egyptian case. The third – Costs of Repression – outlines how the media can make the cost of repression increase by drawing attention the state atrocities such as human rights violations, therefore undermining regime legitimacy and driving international support to the protesters. The fourth category, titled “Scale of Diffusion” explains the role of the media in transforming local protests into larger movements such as the Tunisian revolution having a contagion effect on Egyptian protesters, and of downplaying larger movements. The final category –“ Movement Organisation” – which cautions that whilst the internet in particular can provide an effective platform for converging large aspects of the population around a loose cause – such as “Mubarak Must Go” in Egypt – it does not appear useful in the process to change institutions  after success. Whilst the move to get rid of Mubarak had much support, the preferences on what to do once he was removed differed greatly. This last category holds much weight in my opinion and parallels can be drawn between Lynches ideas outlined in this section and the obvious lack of social cohesion in Egypt once Mubarak was removed and the consequent return to conflict.

The second pathway to change – The Mechanisms of Repression - takes a more regime-centric view of the media, charting ways in which the regime can and has used the media to its advantage. Much attention is paid to ways in which authoritarian regimes have harnessed the power of the internet. These include filtering information, using it to punish those speaking out on social platforms, repression of online information flows, limiting access to the internet, and disrupting online communities. Attention is also paid to means taken that allow states to monitor messenger services, the Egyptian government’s use of their relationship with Vodafone to gain information on subscribers and the custom of “Googling” passengers in airports and gaining access to supposedly private information. This serves to balance Lynches argument – outlining how, whilst the introduction and growth of media in Arab states has helped the public speak up, it has also assisted oppressive governments further repress their citizens.

The third pathway – International Attention and Alliances – explains how the media can influence international support of regimes, or their destruction, across the Arab world. Here Lynch draws primarily on the media’s ability to compel the US into putting pressure on some regimes to open up the political realm during the mid-2000’s. However whilst the media can be a tool in gaining support for either side, it can also be used to distort or misrepresent facts. This is relevant to the Egyptian uprising when information was not going directly to viewers outside Egypt but instead from the ground to an informed expert audience abroad that then presented it as they liked via local media outlets thereby shaping international perception of what was happening. International media was also influential in the Libyan uprising where the “CNN” effect was influential in gaining international support for the rebels.

The final pathway to change is - The Public Sphere. Here Lynch introduces the opinion that whatever comes out of the uprisings in the short term, the long term impacts of the internet and its growing ease of access will alter the nature of authoritarian Arab public spheres. Now demands of the public can be more effectively pressed by a better informed public – people will be better able and more willing to stand up against state control. The only downside here seems to be the divide between those able to take advantage of the new technological age and those unable.

Lynch then begins to conclude with caution in the approach of analysing the effects of the wave of uprisings across Arab states in 2010-2011. He sums up much of his initial argument advocating that the most influential effects of new media may be in the shaping of a generation capable of “eroding the ability of states to monopolize information and argument, of pushing for transparency and accountability, and of facilitating new networks across society”. Here Lynch reiterates a previous caution on how the study of the Arab world should be conducted in light of recent events and changes – it should be more towards empirical study of specific effects of the media in these states and not simply a debate between sceptics and optimists of what the future holds. Finally Lynch concludes with hope that those in this area of study will be ready to adapt theories to these changing and exciting times. Giving both a well-rounded account of the influence of new media and its position in the changing Arab world and an insightful view of where the study of this changing authoritarian Arab environment should be directed in the future.