Explanatory Blog Post 2

EXPLANATORY BLOG POST 2: ‘DEMOCRACY, DEVELOPMENT AND THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM’

SHAUN PIERCY

In this article for the American Political Science Review, Carles Boix explores the potential existence of a causal relationship between a country’s economic growth (particularly in regards to an increase of income per capita), and the establishment of democracy and democratic processes. In the context of the data he presents, Boix determines a country as democratic primarily based on whether the government was elected through competitive elections. (Boix, 810)

Boix initially claims that there does in fact appear to be an identifiable relationship between economic growth and democratisation, however he adopts a balanced approach when analysing the graphical evidence he presents by stating that this correlation is more conditional than what others had previously inferred. He continues on to explain that the causal link between income growth and democratisation is also subject to past significant, political events.

Therefore, Boix refutes the simplistic conclusion that a country’s economic development solely corresponds with the establishment of a democratic regime, by identifying that factors such as social/political inconsistencies during different time periods similarly contributed to the effects income growth had on democratic processes. (813)

He also adds that the data suggests that countries with a lower income were marginally less-likely to successfully adapt to democratisation, whereas countries that were already enjoying a significantly higher level of income were very likely to retain/establish a more democratic political climate, indicating that while the level of a country’s income per capita certainly may help reinforce the process of democratisation, it does not always establish a shift towards democracy. (813)

Boix then moves on to identify and contrast the different approaches implemented by both democratic and authoritarian regimes in the context of what he terms ‘unconstrained’ and ‘constrained’ political environments. (815) The context of an ‘unconstrained’ political climate recognises a single, dominant power/regime operating within international politics (the United States for example); whereas a ‘constrained’ environment implies that several great powers all equally compete for the role of hegemon.  

In an unconstrained world, Boix argues that authoritarian regimes are more likely to support the spread of authoritarianism for two reasons: firstly, dictators are in a greater position to retain, maintain and essentially guarantee the preferred status quo of the hegemon (seeing as they are free from the democratic bonds of fair electoral competition). And secondly, small democratic nations could potentially act as a base for the spread of democratisation, threatening the autonomy of the single, great authoritarian power. (815)

Similarly, Boix believes that great democratic powers are more likely to support the spread of democracy because the costs of a democratic collapse are low in this environment, seeing as there are no other competing hegemons present to challenge the existing order through say, a revolutionary government. (815)

However he then goes on to explain how democratic regimes in this unconstrained international environment face a dilemma: they support the spread of democracy due to the generally strong opinion of a democratic public regarding the benefits of free and fair elections (as well as developments in equality and human rights). However, poorer democratic countries are more often prone to fall to revolutions and dictatorial powers more readily than wealthier, developed countries. Therefore, in areas that are less well-off, great democratic powers may instead support the establishment of authoritarian regimes over democratisation because, once again, the status quo is more easily established and maintained ‘peacefully’ within the constraints of authoritarian orders as opposed to democratic ones. (815)

Alternatively, in a system containing multiple, competing powers (or as Boix calls it; ‘constrained’), the incentives for these powers to intervene in the politics of smaller countries are higher due to the increased potential of regime changes leading to an adjustment of foreign policy. (816)

In the context of the more modern era of international politics, Boix also states that since the fall of the Berlin wall, the United States has enjoyed uncontested supremacy and autonomy atop the current, unconstrained environment of international operations, and as a result there has been an increased and more robust wave of democratisation throughout these last two decades. (827)

Personally, I found this article to be a rather challenging read. The multiple graphs detailing information regarding GDP levels, income data and log variables were often dense and hard to follow. However, I accept this difficulty probably resulted from my considerable lack of understanding and knowledge regarding these economic principles. I did find it interesting when Boix discussed the differences between authoritarian and democratic regimes/powers, and particularly when he compared and contrasted them in regards to whether they existed within either constrained or unconstrained political environments. I had never really considered before these types of situations, specifically where democratic powers may favour the establishment of an authoritarian regime in an effort to establish a consistent and manageable order. Boix certainly explained the contexts of the different potential circumstances clearly, allowing the reader to adopt that position of a particular ‘power,’ view different options from a fresh ideological position and therefore better understand the mechanisms behind how contrasting regimes operate.

The one question I would like to pose to everyone concerned Boix’s comments about the United States. Are they really such an ‘uncontested’ global power? Or is there still (to a degree even), a hegemonic struggle for dominance raging amongst a number of different international players?

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