http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mohamed-nasheed/plan-the-perfect-coup-maldives_b_1871171.html
After the simulation I began to do some research on how to plan the perfect coup. This article by Mohamed Nasheed gives two very important keys for having a successful coup; which are all about marketing.
If you think about a coup as a product, two of the most important things to remember if you want to be successful in selling that product are first impression and the messaging of the product.
Like shopping in a supermarket, Coup leaders must remember that the majority of the target audience or consumers make their mind up about the product in the first couple of moments. Which is why it is essential to make a strong case and have a strong message behind the coup, otherwise it will never gain support. The longer it takes to stage a coup and overthrow the government, the higher the likelihood it will fail.
Contrary to what some people think, it is not enough to just have support from insiders in the elite and military. These types of coups usually end up failing or barely lasting before they are overthrown. The most effective coups are the ones that have support from both the elite, public and international community. These usually are the ones with the strongest message and make the best first impressions to the target audiences. Furthermore, the most effective coups are the ones that are able to precisely time the coup in conjunction with a major political storm( massive demonstrations).
The most recent example of this type of perfect coup would be the one in Egypt(one could argue). While the resulting government is another story, looking at just the coup itself it was a perfect storm. General Sissi was able to gather support from elites(military), mass public and international community. The timing of the coup was perfectly coordinated as the planners waited for momentum to pick up with the massive demonstration to make a strong first impression upon the public and international community.
However, this type of planning and coordination is extremely difficult to achieve. I would argue in a democracy, it would be easier to work inside the system than it would be to create a new one.
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ReplyDeleteTony, i find your analysis of 'How to plan a pefect coup!' using that Huffingtonpost article quite light-hearted. I believe that the article is a quick-brief take and superficial.
ReplyDeleteA 'coup-d'etat' is a serious event where the people and the nation suffers. Looking at it as a product is to downplay the severity of its impact on the people i.e human rights, oppression etc.
Although , the article does compare the two States that had coup i.e Maldives & Fiji. It is written for the benefit of public news-consumer. Its obvious that Maldives had the preferred approach as opposed to Fiji's dictator who dressed up in his naval attire to impress all of his authorities or lack of it!.
Anyway, my point is, this is a scholarly forum and to view coup-d'etat as a product as you have done is to soften the seriousness of the act. Coup-d'etat must be condemned and not given platform to grow.
Ultimately, its people and the Nation as a whole that suffer the consequences. Coup makers go on and become the 1% that control and rake state coffers/tax making themselves and their inner circle and families richer. Is this fair?
Mother-Earth, I don't think Tony meant any harm. But it would be interesting if you could share some first-hand experiences about Fiji and the 2006 coup.
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ReplyDeleteThanks Dr Marquez for your comments.
ReplyDeleteI do realise that Tony did not mean any harm but the piece, perhaps, points towards how we each view what dictatorship is all about in a nut-shell. To him, based on the Huffingtonpost article, its a 'product'.
As for one whose country has been subjected to 3 major coup d'etats since 1987, it is not a 'product'! Its an 'over-throw' of an elected government irrespective of reasons. Subsequently, harm caused to people on the ground is far-reaching. Thats my point.
Taking Fiji as an example, the three major coup d'etat all had different angles.
The 1st Coup claimed it represented the interest of the Indigenous Fijians as they were being outnumbered by the Fiji Ethnic-Indians whose population had increased and became a majority group in Fiji. So the tensions was within this. However, for some ordinary Indigenous Fijians, they felt, this was an extremist group of Nationalist Fijians using military as its power base to execute the coup.
The 2nd coup was a civilian coup executed by George Speight, a civilian. His reasons, were more towards supporting the Western Fijian Chiefs and their land. But as experts noted, it was actually to disband an Indian-led government under Mahendra Chaudary.
It is at this point, we saw the emergence of Voreqe Bainimarama, the current, dictator in Fiji. His role was more of that as a newbee heading the Fiji Military and to try to negotiate for a solution for the release of Mahendra Chaudary & his elected government that had been taken hostage in Fiji's new parliament complex. The coup ended. There were reports of deaths at the shootout.
Nevertheless, Fiji returned to democratically elected government thereafter which saw Laisenia Qarase, as the new elected Prime Minister.
On 6 December 2006 to current, a 3rd coup was executed by Voreqe Bainimarama himself, who overthrew the elected government under Prime Minister Laisenia Qarase, an economist and a banker. Reasons cited by Bainimarama, he was there to clean out corruption. But the obvious reasons, these two just did not get on, as Qarase was not willing to renew Bainimarama's contract as Head of Military. Bainimarama has been in control in Fiji, with little or modified rule of law, he rules under Decree & Public Emergency Regulations. Suppressions of media/press, freedom of speech, public meetings, human rights abuse and more. Dictatorship is still current today in Fiji. A new Fiji 2013 Bainimarama-Khaiyum Constitution (BKC) has been drawn up which threw out & burnt the Yash Ghai Draft Fiji Constitution 2012 to replace the 1997 Fiji Constitution. The Fiji BKC has alot of unresolved contentious issues. One of those, is the Immunity Clause which gives these coup perpetrators 'Absolute Immunity'. This is being debated upon and protests around the globe by Fijians with one scheduled today in Canberra. To add salt to injury, the BKC released late August 2013 and signed off by Fiji's interim president Ratu Epeli Nailatikau, Fiji Islanders have been informed that there has been a mistake in some aspects and so the copy released in late August still had to be amended further. Registration is now in progress for 2014 Election. This is being done electronically with strict criteria of identification and it is a known fact that rural Fijians and Indians and others may not all hold identifications. So it is most likely they will not be part of this election in 2014.
The rest is history.
Heres a link to Professor Roderick Ewins who is European, born and bred in Fiji. His father was a doctor that set up the Leper Hospital in Fiji. Read his personal thoughts on coup events in Fiji thus far.
FIJI INSURRECTION - SOME THOUGHTS
~Rod Ewins
http://www.justpacific.com/fiji/fijicoup2000/insurrection.html
Thanks - very useful!
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