North Korea had been on a the very slow road to Democratization until recently. It was letting citizens who has family in South Korea stay in contact via telephone, had introduced mobile phones and was even giving people access to the internet!
But in recent weeks Kim Jong-Il has taken a huge step back. Now he is violating international regulations and is threatening the safety of every country that his nuclear weapons reach. North Korea has always had nuclear weapons, as a reactionary result to the U.S having nuclear weapons. The testing that North Korea did on Monday violates international law as they were above ground testing. The missiles (plural) reach China, Japan and Hawaii. A launch pad has been permanently set up to aim at South Korea after Kim deigned the 1953 weapons armistice between North and South Korea was void because it was a western construct. This blatant belief in 'Asian values' is seriouslt detrimental to the already fragile relationship between the two countries.
Not only this, but now the U.S and Russia are upping the ante by walking straight into this 'Game Theory' exercise. North Korea tests missiles. Russia is "taking precautionary security measures" by stepping up their protection. By taking such measures they are in fact fuelling the fire and increasing the fear of the situation and amount of weapons.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/2448670/North-Korea-threatens-military-action
Tracey, NK did not always have nuclear weapons, and it is not clear that the current test actually came from a working weapon. (The last test was actually a fizz - a partially working nuclear weapon). The test was not, as far as one can tell, above ground, though that does not diminish the problems with it.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure where you got the thing about NK giving people access to the internet. Maybe to a tiny elite? NK does not even allow people to tune their radios to anything other than government stations, at least until recently.
A fully working weapon, I should say. Of course, even a partially working nuclear weapon is a big problem.
ReplyDeleteIts a fine line to walk isn't it? On the one hand any sort of response could be, as you said, "fuelling the fire" and provoking further North Korean action. But have a look at the other side of the coin. Both Russia and the US put their citizens in jeapordy if they don't take security measures to ensure their safety. The same commentators who would call a response 'irresponsible' would label the US and Russia 'irresponsible' to their citizens if they didn't do anything.
ReplyDeleteAlso I think it seems unlikely that this sort of US-Russian action would lead to any increase in the acquisition of weapons by North Korea; given Kim-Jong Il's history he will undoubtedly be going hell-for-leather to get more/bigger/better weapons regardless of what the response (or lack thereof) is.
Every nation has a right to defend itself and every government has an obligation to defend it's citizens. Its this "contract" that Locke and Rousseau are talking about. Citizens give up the freedom to do whatever the heck they want to (like, for example, the freedom to murder or take whatever they please) in exchange for certain things. Amongst these are the privelege of law and order (and as a result, having your own possessions protected) and to be protected from other people forcefully exerting their will upon you (such as North Korea bullying other country's people with their nukes). A perfectly valid argument could be made that the US and Russia would be breaking their contracts if they didn't take necessary precautions and that would, according to Locke at least, make them illegitimate (revolution anyone?).
Lastly, the article did quote the Russian source as saying that 'military efforts' wouldn't be stepped up but 'measure's' would be taken. However that said, is it even possible to be more ambiguous than that?
I believe that whether North Korea has working or only partially working weapons is irrelevant. The simple fact is they have the ability to create nuclear weapons, and also have the means to launch those weapons at other countries. Therefore Russia and the United States must take a stronger approach.
ReplyDeleteWhile this may indeed provoke Kim Jong-Il but his defiance of international law should not be tolerated in any way shape or form. He is a threat to the world, and in all honesty, the US and Russia should be doing their utmost to eradicate that threat.
For the US and Russia to simply increase sanctions and appear to be increasing military capability is not enough. They need to get serious about the situation and decide that enough is enough, more so for the sake of the people of North Korea than anywhere else.
TheRothmanator and Hadley: excellent comments.
ReplyDeleteI agree with Hadley that it is time to stop 'humouring' Kim Jong-Il as he does pose a threat. North Korea has the ability to develop nuclear weapons, and it is strapped for cash. There is the possibility that NK will sell nuclear weapons to terrorists to use against Western targets. Admittedly, NK's technology is outdated, but a nuclear weapon is a nuclear weapon.
Also, with regards to the original blog post, how do North Korea's actions demonstrate a belief in 'Asian values'?
I think it's safe to say the Americans and Russians have nothing to worry about compared to the neighbouring Asian nations.
ReplyDeleteIf I were in Japan or South Korea i would shit scared - They are the closest, and if the weapons are quite dated then it is likely they will, if they are going to hit anything, those countries!
I somehow doubt NK would start a war or anything, I think they are just trying to show they are powerful - lately all the press has been saying is how poor NK is. Maybe they just want to show they are still with the times and are still a threat?
hadley - you say Russia and America should eradicate the threat? Woah buddy, they arnt the soverignty of the world! It is not up to them to 'eradicate' any threat. They should look after their own country and only use force and interfer IF NK actually does something to them!
What kind of world do we live in where America and Russia have the right to eradicate a threat? People are threatened on a daily basis. Iran is a threat, hell America is a threat. Doesn't mean you eradicate it.
If nuclear hegemony is at stake, Russia and US are going to come to the show, all weapons blazing. I agree with Howard Bruce that NK may be potentially just showing that it still has got what it takes in the real world, but i also see the potential threat in this, from an international perspective. This is the game of nuclear proliferation, when will it stop? hell i dont know but i fear what will happen when the big actors come into the equation and attempt to 'eradicate this threat'. Howard Bruce you bring up an interesting point, where does America and Russia gain this authority and legitimacy to potentially destroy this threat?
ReplyDeleteI caught site of a headline somewhere (probably Stuff) that read someething along the lines of "North Koreans granted access to Twitter!". I think the (short-lived) easing of censorship was the real deal, though why the international press thought it important to inform the world that NK's would now be able to Twitter is beyond me...
ReplyDeletePost title aside, this really is game theory. It is not clear what sorts of threats/inducements would actually make the NK regime give up its nuclear program. It's not as if the US has been humoring the NKoreans much, and even if they wanted to do anything more aggressive, the South Koreans might not want it either (after all, they live next door and might not much like seeing Seoul threatened with destruction by NK), etc. How would more aggressive sanctions actually work? (This is a real question, not a rhetorical one - it is possible that they might, I'm just not seeing it - see also some of the resources for essay 5, topic 4 on sanctions).
ReplyDeleteI would imagine that the difference between weapons that work fully and weapons that don't is that the later gives you a little more time and different strategic options.
It seems like Kim Jong-il is merely trying to secure his power in the regime so that he can designate who is successor will be.
ReplyDeleteAccording to this article North Korea still has to develop the technology to fit a nuclear warhead onto a missile.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure there really is anything the West can do at this stage except hope that North Korea never actually use their weapons. Sanctions don't seem to be much use and in my opinion pre-emptive military action is out of the question especially as we can't be sure how far NK is going to take this.
Here's hoping Kim Jong-il's successor will be somewhat more reasonable.