China's position in global politics is one of the interesting questions in the study of international affairs (at least since we wondered what actually went on at one of Saddam Hussein's surprise birthday barbeques). I have read more than a few times commentators views on China's future as a global superpower, what with their huge workforce and all that. As a country of over a billion people it must only be a matter of time before they put on their game face and their lucky socks and emerge as the most powerful country to match their position as the most populous country?
Well how now, brown cow, lets just back up a second and have a gander at this article. Some highlights:
- Due to the one-child policy, there are now 30 million more males than females in China (not dissimilar, come to think of it, from Maya on a Saturday night). This has massive repercussions regarding competition for wives and obviously for reproduction
- As the population ages the workforce will shrink and there will be more elderly than the economy can support. "Currently there are 13 working age Chinese for every retiree. In 40 years, there will only be two for each retiree. At that point, retirees will comprise 30 percent of the population (versus 12 percent now.) " As the workforce shrinks, pension costs rise like the blazing morning sun and by then care for the elderly will be the single biggest govt. expenditure with a corresponding rise in tax
- Three bullet points look better than two
So what does everyone think? It does change the situation somewhat doesn't it? What most interests me is how will this affect China's ideology? As a communist state, welfare is a massive part of its role. Will the increase in tax and larger costs for the care for the elderly effect the current movement towards capitalisation? Will the industry be more privatised in response? Will this not really change much at all?
Go on, be daring, chuck out your thoughts in the comments of this blog
Ah, the aging population business, I hadn't thought of that in respect to China. It's certainly something to factor in, though I'm not sure how much faith to put in that forty-year projection.
ReplyDeleteIf China is going to be the next superpower, as alot of scholars predict, it will most probably have a lot of money. Money to support the elderly? With the massive gender inbalance, the army numbers should increase. China will become this superpower with a giant army. And when they run out of women will they start looking overseas for expansion amongst other reasons, to take foreign women? The gender in-balance could maybe be another motive for invasion? China could start taking over foreign resources and start using some of the income to support its elderly?
ReplyDeleteThis may seem somewhat far fetched but its just ideas.
The article did actually mention that there already exists an occurence of Chinese men going to other places to marry or, in some cases, even kidnap women. What happened to dinner and a movie?
ReplyDeleteWelfare expenditure are a surprisingly small part of spending in China - for most people, there's no social security or siubsidised healthcare. What do you think accounts for that?
ReplyDeleteCertainly the countries size makes it difficult. Imagine having to provide first-world-standard healthcare for the vast numbers of countryside peasants! Could the money better be spent elsewhere?
ReplyDeleteApart from that I find it somewhat suprising giving China's Socialist nature