Blog Contribution Week 4

 The case for American Authoritarianism

Following the discussion around the potential classification of the United States of America as a competitive authoritarian regime, I wanted to research further into the likelihood of America becoming more authoritarian in the future. One of the most interesting articles I found was ‘Authoritarianism Here?’ by Julian G Waller, which first briefly discusses some of the existing frameworks for analysing democratic backsliding, and then outlines some potential scenarios for the establishment of an authoritarian regime in the US.  

The two frameworks which Waller considers are that proposed by Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt, and the framework set out by the Swedish-based V-Dem Institute. According to Waller, the Levitsky and Ziblatt framework suggests that democratic backsliding often occurs in the wake of “hyperpolarization and monomaniacal, power-aggrandizing politicians breaking key norms for temporary political gain at the expense of the political system as a whole.” American politics have certainly become more polarised in recent years, and former President Trump has mentioned that if re-elected, he may utilise dictatorial power for at least his first day back in office, suggesting that he is happy to break key norms in direct contravention of the political system (Colvin & Barrow, 2023). The V-Dem Institute’s approach suggests that democratic backsliding is largely due to the weakening of institutional constraints such as independent judiciaries, civil society protections and media freedom. This approach gives some credence to the argument against America becoming more authoritarian, because while the president is able to appoint justices on the Supreme Court, the dispersal of power across all fifty states means that there are still some institutions which are able to remain relatively independent.

Waller uses the article to suggest two scenarios in which we could see a more authoritarian America: the scenario of gradual decay, and the scenario of a sudden breakdown in society as a result of a coup.

In the scenario of gradual decay, Waller suggests that an “electoral authoritarian” America would still have elections (and thus be a competitive authoritarian state), and would have two key characteristics: a popular, charismatic president who has no desire to leave office, and a political party who have a skewed representation in Congress, as well as immense loyalty and dependence upon the charismatic president.

Waller highlights that it would be incredibly difficult for a party to gain such immense power, and notes that America demonstrates what Lucan Way terms “pluralism by default”, where the electorate is naturally divided along “cultural and institutional lines.”

The president would need to project themselves as representing the entire American population, and would not identify with the ideologies of either the extreme Right or Left, prioritising a “common sense” approach.

Waller puts forward second, far darker scenario of a military coup, which he argues may be more plausible than a super-popular president-party combination, based on the current political climate. However, military regimes are not long lasting, and “the road to consolidated authoritarian rule remains steep.”

Waller is quick to point out that America’s high polarisation means that it would be incredibly difficult to institutionalise and consolidate genuine authoritarianism in America. While this is not to say it is completely impossible, it is very unlikely, no matter which candidate wins the election in November. Additionally, Waller believes that the structure of American political institutions allows for executive aggrandisement to occur and yet retain “a minimalist conception of electoral democracy and still-substantive representative government.” His conclusion is that a combination of a terrible national tragedy leading to the “abrupt suspension of constitutional order”, coupled with a handing of political power to a charismatic politician, is the most likely way in which America could become an Authoritarian regime.

I think the article makes a compelling and well-balanced argument, and in light of the recent Supreme Court decision ruling that the President has immunity for acts done in office, I think that America faces the very real prospect of becoming an authoritarian state. One aspect of the transition into competitive authoritarianism which has been discussed in class is the presence of a crisis, leading to the leader seizing more power in order to alleviate the conditions in the state, such as Nayib Bukele’s mass imprisonment initiative to lower incidents of gang violence and the nation's high rates of homicide. Similarly, Donald Trump has been highly critical of the government’s handling of the US-Mexico border, and this may provide the impetus he requires to claim more power under the guise of ‘protecting’ the American people. However, at present I believe there are still sufficient guardrails against the complete establishment of an authoritarian regime in the USA such as the federal system, and any discussion of the future of America as a competitive authoritarian state suggests that a complete democratic backsliding remains a fairly remote possibility.

References

Waller, Julian G. “Authoritarianism Here?”. American Affairs, Volume VI, Issue 1 (Spring 2022):158-178.

https://americanaffairsjournal-org.eu1.proxy.openathens.net/issue/spring-2022/

Colvin, Jill, and Bill Barrow. “Trump’s Vow to Only Be a Dictator on ‘Day One’ Follows Growing Worry over His Authoritarian Rhetoric.” AP News. December 8, 2023. https://apnews.com/article/trump-hannity-dictator-authoritarian-presidential-election-f27e7e9d7c13fabbe3ae7dd7f1235c72.