EBP 1: Turkey: How the Coup Failed

 EBP 1: Turkey: How the Coup Failed

Turkey: How the Coup Failed

By Berk Esen & Sebnem Gumuscu

In this exploration of a critical moment in Türkiye’s modern history, Berk Esen and Sebnem Gumuscu examine the attempted military coup of the Justice and Development (AKP) party on July 15th, 2016, and argue why the coup failed. This article was published in the Journal of Democracy in January 2017, less than one year after the coup attempt. Yet, Esen and Gumuscu analyze possible scenarios to project routes the regime may take toward authoritarianism. This text is an attempt to understand the causes and consequences, and what political aspects of the regime allowed it to defend itself from a violent takeover.

Both Esen and Gumuscu are Associate Professors of Political Studies, each at Sabanci University, Türkiye, and Middlebury College, USA, respectively, with areas of research focused on party politics and democratic backsliding. Both have worked together on multiple published works, and each has published studies on Turkish politics and research from across the Middle East. This puts a lot of weight behind their claims. 

The key argument presented in this text is that the ruling regime’s success against the coup attempt is due to its competitive authoritarian nature, as the AKP benefitted from the government's access to resources and control, as well as a veneer of validity and legality from its electoral processes. 

As the authors explain, Türkiye has had multiple parties competing since the 1950s, with 6 coup attempts throughout this period, some successful some not. The AKP came to power democratically in 2002, with the election of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and began to oppose the Military and Judiciary’s institutionalized power received from a 1960 coup. With the help of the Islamist Network, Fethullah Gülen, and the EU, the AKP succeeded in clipping military influence in 2007, before shifting to become more authoritarian, causing conflict with the Gülenists. 

After various attempts to undermine the AKP’s power, mid-level Gülenist leaders of the military staged a coup in the late hours of July 15th, rolling tanks across the bridges in Istanbul and launching raids at key military and intelligence targets. The response to this uprising was unprecedented in Turkish history, as the coup-makers faced vehement resistance from both the people of Türkiye and opposition parties.

The AKP had tight control over Turkish media, News, and Social, allowing its messaging to reach more people, and supporters to organize quickly. Esen and Gumuscu also show how the regime’s authoritarian quality means it utilizes the public sector and state organizations for its own goals, using religion and a network of Mosques with loudspeakers to sway public opinion and demoralize the coup makers, and connecting with local businesses to block the coup with heavy equipment. The authors also describe how the opposition parties denounced the coup in a special session of parliament, siding with the legal political system and rule of law to fight against authoritarianism, rather than changing the government through irregular means. As they put it, AKP benefited from its competitive side as “the presence of opposition parties and a semi-free media allowed Erdoğan critics who remained committed to democracy to protest the armed intervention”.

The Authors use newspapers from both within and outside the country as their sources, including interviews with many involved, official and foreign reports of actions leading up to the main event, and reports of actions taken during. Journal articles, including their previous work, are used. 

They end with discussing what might come next in Türkiye, which they link to Steven Levitsky and Lucan Way’s work Competitive Authoritarianism, where there are three pathways the regime can take, democritisation, stable and unstable authoritarianism. Esen and Gumuscu certainly agree that the nation is falling deeper into authoritarianism, with massive detainment of opponents and suspected coup members, academic and media organizations closed, and laws that expand AKP's capacity to overpower the opposition. It is noted that the AKP could be pushed by international forces to become democratic, or the AKP may be backed into a corner from the public backlash of their actions. Still, Esen and Gumuscu agree that stable authoritarianism is the way things are heading.

In reality, the AKP did declare a state of emergency, lasting more than two years, arresting thousands and firing more using “dubious evidence”, saying the Gülenists a terrorist organization. This, paired with changing the parliamentary system to an executive presidential system may suggest proof to the author's claims that they are heading in a more authoritarian direction, yet it can be argued that Türkiye is still somewhat within the competitive authoritarian zone.

The argument that competitive authoritarian regimes may be more flexible in their power, and able to fend off coups, is a useful tool for this course, as it can help explain causes and consequences seen in other regimes and other interstate conflicts. It shows how these regimes can utilize the best of both worlds, per se. However, it is hard to ride the fence effectively, and many other states fall to either side. Many competitive authoritarian regimes go down the aforementioned three pathways, which we can see with Türkiye. This case study is also an interesting example of the politician of everyday life that was discussed in class, usually a theme of totalitarianism, in Türkiye’s case the AKP’s use of religion, private and public sector, and social and news media, the politician of everyday life was used to defend itself from overthrowing.

Esen, Berk, and Sebnem Gumuscu. “Project MUSE - Turkey: How the Coup Failed.” Journal of Democracy 28, no. 1 (January 2017): 59–73. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2017.0006.   

The Guardian. “Attempted Coup in Turkey – in Pictures,” July 16, 2016. Erdoğan supporters wave flags as they capture a tank, Photograph: Gokhan Tan/Getty Imageshttps://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2016/jul/16/attempted-coup-in-turkey-in-pictures.  

Ibrahim, Arwa. “What Was Turkey’s Failed Coup about – and What’s Happened since?” Al Jazeera, July 15, 2022. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/15/turkeys-failed-coup-attempt-explainer.